Afghanistan Humanitarian Crisis

• In 2024, 23.7 million people will need assistance. Humanitarian partners have prioritized 17.3 million people in 2024.
• Between November 2023 and March 2024, around 15.8 million people are projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity.
• The World Bank reports that 48% of Afghanistan’s population lives in poverty. Although Afghan households’ welfare is better now compared to the months following the political transition in August 2021, “the welfare situation of Afghan households remains one of high deprivation and extreme vulnerability.”
• As of March 30, 2024, 12,375 people were affected by disasters throughout Afghanistan this year, with 40 killed. In 2023, between January and November, 344,272 people were affected with 1,432 killed.
• Despite an unseasonal winter with delayed snowfall, above average precipitation is forecasted for spring, from April to June, 2024.
• As of March 7, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) recorded 531,400 Afghans having returned to Afghanistan from neighboring Pakistan. In October 2023, the Government of Pakistan set Nov. 1, 2023, as the deadline for the “voluntary return” of all undocumented Afghans in Pakistan to their country of origin. The second phase of the ongoing campaign of forced deportation is scheduled to begin on April 15.
• Humanitarian access constraints continue to impact the operational environment. In February 2024, there were 136 humanitarian access incidents, a 25% increase from the same period last year. The surge in reported incidents is primarily attributed to impediments triggered by rain natural hazards and disasters.

The HNRP 2024 states, “While conflict-related displacement has drastically decreased since 2021, an estimated 6.3 million individuals—roughly 1 in 7 Afghans—are experiencing long-term displacement, many who left their homes as early as 2012.” Many of these IDPs have been displaced for years and often live in sites with no written, legal agreement for land usage which contributes to their vulnerability.

People in Afghanistan are displaced due to factors other than just conflict. For example, water scarcity in the country heavily impacts livelihoods and drives displacement. Extreme weather events and disasters have an effect on infrastructure and livelihoods, increasing the risk of displacement.

As of Nov. 30, 2023, 5,284,780 Afghan refugees were registered in the neighboring countries of Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Of the refugees registered in neighboring countries, 64.1% are in Iran and 35.1% in Pakistan.

On Oct. 3, 2023, the Government of Pakistan announced its plan to repatriate “illegal foreigners”, with Nov. 1, 2023 as the deadline for the “voluntary return” of undocumented Afghans in Pakistan. The second phase of the ongoing deportation campaign is now aimed at the repatriation of nearly one million ‘documented’ Afghans. Deportations are expected to begin on April 15.

Since Sept. 15, 2023, over 500,000 Afghans have returned from Pakistan to Afghanistan. Many were reported to be in “often exhausted and in poor medical condition, require urgent emergency attention and assistance upon arrival, including food, health, cash, non-food items and psychosocial support.” Around 70% of those returning are women and children, including 13% female heads of households.

According to the acting Minister of Refugees and Repatriation, more than a million Afghan refugees had been deported from neighboring countries, especially from Pakistan, in 2023.

An Associated Press photographer traveled across Afghanistan in 2023 getting to know displaced people and returned refugees and capturing their images. The images demonstrate the seriousness of the humanitarian situation.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake occurred on Oct. 7, 2023, about 25 miles northwest of Herat at shallow depths. This earthquake was followed by a second 6.3-magnitude earthquake about 30 minutes later. Another 6.3-magnitude earthquake shook Herat Province on Oct. 11, 2023.

A spokesman for Afghanistan’s national disaster authority, Janan Sayiq, told reporters on Oct. 9 that around 4,000 people were killed, but other reports say the figure is closer to 2,000. The Oct. 11 earthquake reportedly killed at least two people and injured another 150. As of Nov. 3, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 1,482 deaths. As is often the case after disasters, accurate figures on deaths and injuries are a challenge, particularly in fragile states like Afghanistan.

According to the International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies in an operational update published on Nov. 27, “In several affected villages, not a single house remains standing. Thousands of people are living in open space under tents, tarpaulins or other locally made temporary make-shift structures as their houses were destroyed or are afraid of returning home due to frequent aftershocks.”

The UN Population Fund said women and children were disproportionately affected because they were more likely to be at home while men were out of the home working. Women-headed households are particularly vulnerable, with protection concerns and challenges obtaining humanitarian assistance. The Gender in Humanitarian Action Working Group in Afghanistan reports that earthquake-affected women said immediate priorities relate to shelter and water, sanitation and hygiene.

According to a new report by the UN, the World Bank, the European Union and the Asian Development Bank, an estimated $402.9 million is urgently needed to support critical recovery and reconstruction efforts in Herat province. The report highlights housing as the top priority covering 41% of total recovery needs and underscores the need for gender-responsive initiatives given only 10% of women-owned businesses resumed operations and women made up 58% of casualties.

This comes after an October 2023 Herat Earthquake Response Plan said $93.6 million is required to deliver life-saving response activities and support early recovery efforts until March 2024.

Humanitarians in 2023 faced increased access challenges along with funding cuts, which have resulted in reduced services and aid provision. In October 2023, humanitarian partners responding to the earthquakes were subject to daily movement approvals by the De facto Authorities (DfA) impacting earthquake-affected populations. Despite approval from DfAs, access impediments in February 2024 due to disasters and natural hazards led to temporary suspensions and closures of projects and facilities, respectively.

It is clear that disaster survivors need assistance in the short term and will require support for longer-term recovery. The ongoing complex humanitarian emergency makes recovering from disasters such as earthquakes harder.

Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural hazards. Most homes in Afghanistan lack a good foundation and are poorly constructed with often heavy roofs that can collapse into the structure, making them vulnerable to seismic activity. For these reasons, the earthquakes that devastated Herat Province, and other natural hazards that Afghanistan faces, cannot be called “natural disasters.” While natural hazards, such as earthquakes, are inevitable, their impact on society is not.

According to the HNRP 2024, “Afghanistan is grappling with a precarious health situation characterized by a fragile healthcare system and unequal access to services, particularly in rural areas. The challenges are multifaceted, including insufficient funding, heavy dependence on foreign aid, transportation, a shortage of healthcare professionals, and limited access to quality healthcare.”

In addition to these challenges, the Taliban’s ban on women working for NGOs has a direct impact on women and girls’ ability to access and receive health services including sexual and reproductive health services. To meet cultural requirements and expectations, it is critical that women health professionals are able to work and meet the health needs of women and girls in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan faces several infectious disease outbreaks. In WHO’s most recent report for March 17-23, suspected measles, dengue fever and acute respiratory infection cases were higher than the average number of cases reported during the three preceding years (2020-2023). The report said epidemiological curve of suspected measles cases shows a rising trend since the third week of November 2023 with signs of stabilization in March.

Loss of foreign development aid and Taliban rights violation have resulted to a catastrophic health crisis, according to Human Rights Watch, with the cost of treatment and medicine far out of reach for many Afghans. In addition to a crippling health system, between January – February 2024, two incidents of attacks on health care were reported, consistent with 2023 numbers for the same time period.

On average, 200,000 Afghans are affected by disasters each year. Between January and November 2023, 344,272 people were affected by disasters throughout Afghanistan. During this period, 25 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces experienced a disaster.

At the start of 2024, Afghanistan was in its third year of drought, and humanitarian groups warned that another year of drought could make an already difficult situation worse. Despite delayed snowfall, above average precipitation in March 2024 has reduced deficits across most of the country, improving agricultural conditions and potentially, harvest.

Acute food insecurity was expected in northern and western parts of Afghanistan through May 2024 due to low household purchasing power and access to income for food purchases.

In 2024, Afghanistan more than 60 people were killed following weeks of heavy rain and snow between February and March. Western Heart province, still reeling from the devastating October 2023 earthquakes, was significantly impacted by flash floods with multiple casualties reported and farmlands flooded.

In addition to the October earthquakes described in detail above, significant disasters in 2023 included the following:

• Heavy rainfall the week of July 24, 2023, resulted in deadly flooding in Kabul, Maidan Wardak and Logar provinces in Afghanistan. According to a spokesman for Taliban’s Ministry of Disaster Management, as of July 30, the floods had killed at least 31 people, 41 were missing and another 74 injured.
• A 6.5 magnitude earthquake hit Badakhshan Province in northeastern Afghanistan on March 21, 2023. The earthquake combined with underlying vulnerabilities damaged an estimated 200 houses and affected more than 7,000 people. Heavy rains and flash flooding also affected more than 4,500 people in several provinces in spring 2023. Limited funding constrained humanitarians’ ability to scale up assistance.

Significant disasters in 2022, such as flash floods in August, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake in June and unseasonal severe rainfall in May, resulted in the establishment a taskforce with representatives from UN agencies and NGOs. Through assessments and analysis, a lessons learnt report found that the lack of female staff early in the response meant the needs of women and girls were missed in early assessments, demonstrating the critical role women play. While humanitarian partners provided assistance to more than 100,000 people, the specific needs of women and girls could be strengthened, a lesson for future disasters as well as the ongoing crisis.

According to the HNRP 2024, “With anticipated El Niño conditions in late 2023 and early 2024, Afghanistan grapples with both promise and risk. The potential for above-normal rainfall presents an opportunity for drought recovery but simultaneously raises the specter of flooding and crop pests.”

Despite some slight improvements, nearly a third of the population (13.1 million) remains in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3 or above, and are therefore in urgent need of food security assistance.

The IPC’s acute food insecurity scale is broken down into five phases: no or minimal (Phase 1), stressed (Phase 2), crisis (Phase 3), emergency (Phase 4), and catastrophe, famine or famine likely (Phase 5).

Rates of food insecurity levels persist and an increase to 15.8 million people in IPC Phase 3 or above is projected for November 2023 to March 2024 compared to the current period in October 2023.

WFP telephone surveys conducted between January and April 2023 revealed that, “Although there has been a minimal improvement in food consumption over the recent quarter, the vast majority of the population (87 percent) still does not have adequate food consumption and dietary diversity.”

One often overlooked concern is the health of livestock, which are an important source of food and income for many families, including hundreds of thousands of nomadic herders where this is deeply engrained in their culture and who have survived this way for generations. With the drop in temperatures during cooler and winter months, below-average animal fodder, overstretched veterinarians and increased transportation costs, there is a risk of severe loss of livestock.

According to the 2023 Women, Peace and Security Index, Afghanistan ranks worst of 177 countries in terms of the status of women.

“Since 2021, Afghanistan has ranked the worst in the world to be a woman. Afghan women wake up each day to no jobs, no education and no autonomy over their lives. This report should serve as a wakeup call to world leaders that a nation of women is imprisoned,” said Torunn L. Tryggestad, Director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo’s Centre for Gender, Peace and Security.

Following the Taliban’s directive for judges to fully impose their interpretation of Sharia Law in 2022, experts feared further deterioration of human rights in Afghanistan. This deterioration of rights was evidenced by bans on Afghan women working in NGOs and employed with the UN mission, prompting the UN to review its presence in the country. The Taliban’s decision was strongly condemned by the Secretary-General who said it violated “the inalienable fundamental human rights of women.”

Women workers are critical to humanitarian operations in Afghanistan, and the ban has negative consequences. As UN Women survey of humanitarian partners released on Feb. 8, 2023 showed that 93% of organizations saw an increased impact on their access to affected women. As NGOs suspend or scale back their operations, they warn that thousands of Afghans will miss out on lifesaving humanitarian assistance.

In July 2023, the Taliban continued to expand restrictions on women by announcing that beauty salons would be closed. The same month, Tolo News reported the Ministry of Higher Education decided only males would be taking university entrance exams.

A UN report published on Jan. 22, 2024, said the Taliban were restricting Afghan women’s access to work, travel and health care if they are unmarried or don’t have a male guardian. UN experts called this treatment of women “gender apartheid.”

Until the ban is reversed, some NGOs are forced to decide whether to continue operations based on assurances from the Taliban or government ministries. Among the ongoing access challenges humanitarians face are operational constraints due to restrictions on women humanitarian workers. According to UNOCHA, due to gender-motivated constraints, 89 humanitarian projects were suspended and facilities temporarily closed in 2023.

In November 2023, Human Rights Watch (HRW) wrote about women’s rights activists being arbitrarily detained by the Taliban. HRW said, “The Taliban’s crackdown is ongoing. They continue to issue abusive new policies and to brutally enforce old ones. Even women who protest in their homes are being arrested.”

Under Taliban control, thousands of member of the LGBTQIA+ community have sought asylum in neighboring countries like Pakistan where transgenders are recognized as a minority group. However, with the controversial forced deportation plan, many now fear returning to Afghanistan where they may face harsher mistreatment, discrimination and gender-based abuse than in Pakistan.